Can Wicked: For Good Top 1 Billion?
Wicked: For Good is going to be huge, but can it get to the magical 1-billion number? Let's have a look...
Last week, Universal finally dropped the first trailer for “Wicked: For Good”, the second part of the Broadway adaptation. It looks beautiful, stunning, epic, and it seems to me that it will give fans everything they wanted. One of the questions that I see recently is about the box office, can this installment top the 1 billion? That’s a fair question, especially because Wicked is so popular right now, and “For Good” is one of the most anticipated movies of the year.
The first Wicked opened last November (they show the two movies back-to-back) to glowing reviews and incredible audience reaction. It opened to 112.5 million domestically, and eventually grossed 473.2 domestically and 282.8 million overseas, for a worldwide total of 756 million. As you can see, while it had a fantastic run in the US, it didn’t catch fire at the same level overseas. Unlike most blockbusters that make most of their money overseas, this one had the opposite scenario.
If Universal really wants the magical 1-billion milestone, they need to attract (way) more overseas audiences this time. I suspect this is why they used “The Epic Conclusion” tagline in the trailer – they want it to be the biggest event of the year, something that no one can miss. Another thing that I believe will help this movie is the fact that it features the classic Wizard of Oz characters that everyone knows and loves. You can see Dorothy, the Cowardly Lion, the Tin Man and the Scarecrow in the trailer, so this is a clever way to draw new audiences.
Another thing that Universal surely hopes so is the popularity in streaming. For example, Spider-Man: Into the SpiderVerse grossed 394 million at the box office. Then it became huge on Netflix, and when the sequel, Across the SpiderVerse was released, it got a huge bump and grossed 690 million. But I don’t in this case it will be at the same capacity, because there were 5 years between both SpiderVerse movies, in which the first movie became popular on streaming, while in Wicked it’s just one year apart. I’m not sure it’s enough time.
Above everything, this movie doesn’t need to hit the billion in order to become a hit. It cost around 150 million (both movies combined cost around 300 million), so even if the final box office number will be around the last movie (somewhere in the 700-800 million range), this will still be a massive success. I mean, we’re talking about a 300-million-production that grossed around 1.5 billion – this is pretty nice! No matter what, I’m pretty sure that Universal will try everything in order to get the magical 1-billion number.